International Agencies Concerned About War's Effect on Wheat Supply
2022-03-25
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1Russia's war in Ukraine has economists concerned about the worldwide supply of wheat.
2Ukraine and Russia account for over 30 percent of world wheat and barley exports.
3The war will limit the supply of those grains.
4That is likely to cause problems for people in the Middle East, Africa and Asia.
5Poor people in those regions depend on wheat purchased by their governments for much of their daily food.
6It comes in the form of bread and noodles.
7Observers are wondering where that wheat will come from if it cannot come from Russia and Ukraine.
8Farmers in other parts of the world are considering planting more wheat in their fields.
9Ed Kessel owns a farm in the northern U.S. state of North Dakota.
10He is a leader of the North Dakota Grain Growers Association.
11He said he may plant some more wheat this year to possibly earn additional money.
12The price of wheat is expected to go up, along with other grains produced in Russia and Ukraine.
13Another commodity going up in price because of the war is oil.
14Kessel said a little more money from wheat will help offset the rising cost of fuel and the loss of some crops due to recent dry weather.
15"We'll put a few more acres into wheat and a few more into sunflowers," he said.
16Economists are watching farmers in the U.S. and in other nations including Canada, France, Australia and Argentina.
17They are wondering if farmers in those places can make up for lost Ukrainian and Russian supplies.
18As long as that question remains unanswered, nations like Egypt, Lebanon and Pakistan will worry about the wheat supply.
19In a report released this month, the International Grains Council said extra grain from other parts of the world will only "partially" make up for lower production in Russia and Ukraine.
20Another organization expressing concern about the wheat supply is the United Nations' World Food Programme (WFP).
21About half the grain purchased each year by the WFP comes from Ukraine.
22The head of the WFP said the combination of more costly wheat and lower wheat exports is a "catastrophe not just in Ukraine," but possibly worldwide.
23It is not yet clear how financial restrictions placed on Russia will limit the country's ability to sell grain to other countries.
24For now, Australia and India have said they will increase their exports.
25But many other countries are not able to quickly make changes to the amount of wheat they can send to the rest of the world.
26In recent years, farms in the U.S. produced about 50 million metric tons of wheat.
27But last year, the amount was about 10 percent lower because of a lack of rain and moves to plant other crops.
28Canada, Australia and Argentina have said they can all start to plant more wheat.
29But it is unclear how fast they can make changes.
30Doug Martin is a farmer in Manitoba, Canada.
31He said most farmers already have a plan in place for the season and "will probably stick to that."
32One reason for that, Martin said, is that other crops such as oats and barley are also bringing in better prices.
33At the same time, farmers are being careful with how much they plant.
34That is because other supplies important for farming, such as fertilizer, are more costly.
35Sylvain Charlebois is a food policy professor at Dalhousie University in Canada.
36He said if fertilizer were less costly it might be possible to grow more wheat. But that is not the case.
37Phillippe Duterte is a wheat farmer.
38His farm is about 200 kilometers southwest of Paris.
39He said he might be able to add a little more wheat but he is not sure.
40He noted that France "cannot guarantee the food security of France and Europe tomorrow."
41In Australia, wheat production has been strong.
42However, all the wheat for sale outside of the country has already been promised to other buyers.
43In Argentina, farmers have trouble selling their wheat outside of the country because the government put in place price controls on exports.
44Wheat is a large part of the diet in places suffering from bad growing conditions such as Egypt.
45Egypt is the largest wheat importer in the world.
46In answer to price increases, the government recently announced a price restriction and said that those who are trying to sell bread for a high price will be fined.
47There are about 270 million metric tons of wheat in storage that can help make up for less wheat coming from Ukraine and Russia.
48However, half of that is already held in China to support its 1.4 billion people.
49The problem may remain until the fighting in Ukraine stops.
50Tom Bernhardt is a farmer in North Dakota.
51Even with the higher wheat prices, he said he probably will not plant more of the crop.
52He said he has never planted more of a crop just to "chase prices."
53I'm Ashley Thompson. And I'm Dan Friedell.
1Russia's war in Ukraine has economists concerned about the worldwide supply of wheat. 2Ukraine and Russia account for over 30 percent of world wheat and barley exports. The war will limit the supply of those grains. 3That is likely to cause problems for people in the Middle East, Africa and Asia. Poor people in those regions depend on wheat purchased by their governments for much of their daily food. It comes in the form of bread and noodles. 4Observers are wondering where that wheat will come from if it cannot come from Russia and Ukraine. 5Farmers in other parts of the world are considering planting more wheat in their fields. 6Ed Kessel owns a farm in the northern U.S. state of North Dakota. He is a leader of the North Dakota Grain Growers Association. He said he may plant some more wheat this year to possibly earn additional money. 7The price of wheat is expected to go up, along with other grains produced in Russia and Ukraine. Another commodity going up in price because of the war is oil. 8Kessel said a little more money from wheat will help offset the rising cost of fuel and the loss of some crops due to recent dry weather. 9"We'll put a few more acres into wheat and a few more into sunflowers," he said. 10Economists are watching farmers in the U.S. and in other nations including Canada, France, Australia and Argentina. They are wondering if farmers in those places can make up for lost Ukrainian and Russian supplies. 11As long as that question remains unanswered, nations like Egypt, Lebanon and Pakistan will worry about the wheat supply. 12In a report released this month, the International Grains Council said extra grain from other parts of the world will only "partially" make up for lower production in Russia and Ukraine. 13Another organization expressing concern about the wheat supply is the United Nations' World Food Programme (WFP). About half the grain purchased each year by the WFP comes from Ukraine. 14The head of the WFP said the combination of more costly wheat and lower wheat exports is a "catastrophe not just in Ukraine," but possibly worldwide. 15It is not yet clear how financial restrictions placed on Russia will limit the country's ability to sell grain to other countries. 16For now, Australia and India have said they will increase their exports. But many other countries are not able to quickly make changes to the amount of wheat they can send to the rest of the world. 17In recent years, farms in the U.S. produced about 50 million metric tons of wheat. But last year, the amount was about 10 percent lower because of a lack of rain and moves to plant other crops. 18Canada, Australia and Argentina have said they can all start to plant more wheat. But it is unclear how fast they can make changes. 19Doug Martin is a farmer in Manitoba, Canada. He said most farmers already have a plan in place for the season and "will probably stick to that." One reason for that, Martin said, is that other crops such as oats and barley are also bringing in better prices. 20At the same time, farmers are being careful with how much they plant. That is because other supplies important for farming, such as fertilizer, are more costly. 21Sylvain Charlebois is a food policy professor at Dalhousie University in Canada. He said if fertilizer were less costly it might be possible to grow more wheat. But that is not the case. 22Phillippe Duterte is a wheat farmer. His farm is about 200 kilometers southwest of Paris. He said he might be able to add a little more wheat but he is not sure. He noted that France "cannot guarantee the food security of France and Europe tomorrow." 23In Australia, wheat production has been strong. However, all the wheat for sale outside of the country has already been promised to other buyers. 24In Argentina, farmers have trouble selling their wheat outside of the country because the government put in place price controls on exports. 25Wheat is a large part of the diet in places suffering from bad growing conditions such as Egypt. Egypt is the largest wheat importer in the world. In answer to price increases, the government recently announced a price restriction and said that those who are trying to sell bread for a high price will be fined. 26There are about 270 million metric tons of wheat in storage that can help make up for less wheat coming from Ukraine and Russia. However, half of that is already held in China to support its 1.4 billion people. 27The problem may remain until the fighting in Ukraine stops. 28Tom Bernhardt is a farmer in North Dakota. Even with the higher wheat prices, he said he probably will not plant more of the crop. 29He said he has never planted more of a crop just to "chase prices." 30I'm Ashley Thompson. And I'm Dan Friedell. 31Dan Friedell adapted this story for VOA Learning English based a report by The Associated Press. 32What do you think will happen in poor nations that cannot get enough wheat? Let us know. Write to us in the Comments Section and visit our Facebook page. 33Words in This Story 34region -n. part of a country or the world 35noodle -n. a thin strip of dough made from flour, water and eggs cooked in boiling liquid 36commodity - n. something bought and sold 37offset - v. to cancel or reduce the effect of something 38sunflower -n. a tall plant that has very large yellow flowers that produces seeds that can be eaten 39partially -adv. somewhat but not completely 40catastrophe -n. a terrible disaster 41barley -n. a kind of grain used for food that also is used for beer and whiskey 42fertilizer -n. a substance applied to plants that helps them grow 43diet -n. the food that people usually eat